Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-14 2.229017 2.352552 2.486190 2.642852 2.823314 3.027075 3.278193
2025-09-21 2.089561 2.244798 2.419897 2.635476 2.899024 3.218595 3.649455
2025-09-28 1.971524 2.141422 2.338198 2.588441 2.907275 3.314831 3.905421
2025-10-05 1.928877 2.118791 2.344879 2.642585 3.039907 3.580659 4.440669
2025-10-12 1.905248 2.114872 2.371003 2.719979 3.208447 3.920468 5.187770
2025-10-19 1.848105 2.064764 2.333837 2.708595 3.250141 4.078849 5.689276
2025-10-26 1.804797 2.028742 2.311218 2.713157 3.312896 4.278901 6.356509
2025-11-02 1.745057 1.968413 2.252661 2.662198 3.285065 4.320745 6.705683
2025-11-09 1.702583 1.928148 2.218158 2.642116 3.301754 4.442359 7.318359
2025-11-16 1.665994 1.893739 2.189385 2.627625 3.324785 4.579015 8.076706
2025-11-23 1.631336 1.860318 2.160074 2.609878 3.339865 4.702618 8.918348
2025-11-30 1.611065 1.844926 2.154453 2.626547 3.413801 4.962638 10.630285
2025-12-07 1.556699 1.783474 2.083979 2.543129 3.311104 4.831059 10.511041
2025-12-14 1.530663 1.759110 2.064327 2.536473 3.343063 5.009541 12.358524
2025-12-21 1.494815 1.720342 2.022789 2.493317 3.305117 5.017405 13.284939
2025-12-28 1.489860 1.723106 2.040034 2.543137 3.442768 5.495353 21.041955
2026-01-04 1.491062 1.734115 2.069343 2.614135 3.631362 6.205130 102.846108
2026-01-11 1.469256 1.712512 2.050018 2.603739 3.656395 6.445697 NaN
2026-01-18 1.452637 1.697588 2.039879 2.607937 3.712098 6.818791 NaN
2026-01-25 1.423286 1.664070 2.000966 2.561236 3.654692 6.766420 NaN
2026-02-01 1.402723 1.642429 1.979161 2.542811 3.657075 6.946632 NaN
2026-02-08 1.384450 1.623561 1.960891 2.529506 3.669394 7.177185 NaN
2026-02-15 1.366226 1.604328 1.941466 2.513199 3.673422 7.380976 NaN